Global warming has increased monthly heat records by a factor of five

Source:  http://www.pik-potsdam.de/news/press-releases/monatliche-hitzerekorde-haben-sich-durch-die-erderwaermung-verfuenffacht

 

01/14/2013 - Monthly temperature extremes have become much more frequent, as measurements from around the world indicate. On average, there are now five times as many record-breaking hot months worldwide than could be expected without long-term global warming, shows a study now published in Climatic Change. In parts of Europe, Africa and southern Asia the number of monthly records has increased even by a factor of ten. 80 percent of observed monthly records would not have occurred without human influence on climate, concludes the authors-team of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and the Complutense University of Madrid. 

 

“The last decade brought unprecedented heat waves; for instance in the US in 2012, in Russia in 2010, in Australia in 2009, and in Europe in 2003,” lead-author Dim Coumou says. “Heat extremes are causing many deaths, major forest fires, and harvest losses – societies and ecosystems are not adapted to ever new record-breaking temperatures.” The new study relies on 131 years of monthly temperature data for more than 12.000 grid points around the world, provided by NASA. Comprehensive analysis reveals the increase in records.

The researchers developed a robust statistical model that explains the surge in the number of records to be a consequence of the long-term global warming trend. That surge has been particularly steep over the last 40 years, due to a steep global-warming trend over this period. Superimposed on this long-term rise, the data show the effect of natural variability, with especially high numbers of heat records during years with El Niño events. This natural variability, however, does not explain the overall development of record events, found the researchers.

Natural variability does not explain the overall development of record events

If global warming continues, the study projects that the number of new monthly records will be 12 times as high in 30 years as it would be without climate change. “Now this doesn’t mean there will be 12 times more hot summers in Europe than today – it actually is worse,“ Coumou points out. For the new records set in the 2040s will not just be hot by today’s standards. “To count as new records, they actually have to beat heat records set in the 2020s and 2030s, which will already be hotter than anything we have experienced to date,” explains Coumou. “And this is just the global average – in some continental regions, the increase in new records will be even greater.”

“Statistics alone cannot tell us what the cause of any single heat wave is, but they show a large and systematic increase in the number of heat records due to global warming,” says Stefan Rahmstorf, a co-author of the study and co-chair of PIK’s research domain Earth System Analysis. “Today, this increase is already so large that by far most monthly heat records are due to climate change. The science is clear that only a small fraction would have occurred naturally.”

Article: Coumou, D., Robinson, A., Rahmstorf, S. (2013): Global increase in record-breaking monthly-mean temperatures. Climatic Change (online) [doi:10.1007/s10584-012-0668-1]
Weblink to the article: http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-012-0668-1

For further information please contact:
PIK press office
Phone: +49 331 288 25 07
E-Mail: press@pik-potsdam.de

7 of 10 Filipinos Believe Climate Change Dangerous to Environment, Families - Survey

7 of 10 Pinoys believe climate change dangerous to environment, families - survey

Source: http://www.philstar.com/Article.aspx?articleId=603478&publicationSubCategoryId=63
By Helen Flores and Amanda Fisher (The Philippine Star)
Updated August 17, 2010 12:00 AM Comments (6)


MANILA, Philippines - Seven of every 10 Filipinos acknowledge the dangers posed by climate change to the environment, with Metro Manila residents voicing the biggest concern, results of the latest Pulse Asia “Ulat ng Bayan” survey show.

According to the survey, the percentage of Filipinos who are worried about the dangers of climate change has gone up to 71 percent from 61 percent two years ago.

Pulse Asia also said the figure was a high 84 percent in Metro Manila, possibly because of tropical storm “Ondoy” last year which flooded most of the capital and killed close to 500 people.

It also attributed the rising awareness about climate change among Metro Manila’s 12 million residents to a drought this year that caused severe water shortage.

The same survey also showed that 21 percent of Filipinos believe God is punishing humans for their evil deeds by inflicting environmental catastrophes on them, although the figure is lower than the 23 percent recorded two years ago. The Philippines is predominantly Roman Catholic.

The survey was conducted from July 1 to 11 and involved interviews with 1,200 respondents.

Based on the survey, two in three Filipinos noticed a “big change” in the country’s climate over the past three years, and almost half said they had “little or no knowledge” of the climate change phenomenon.

The survey also found that 66 percent of Filipinos experienced a big change in climate in their places in the past three years.

On the other hand, 11 percent of respondents said there was little change in the climate in their areas during the period, while 23 percent were undecided on the matter. Public ambivalence was most pronounced in Mindanao (33 percent) and the least in Metro Manila (12 percent) and the Visayas (14 percent).

“Between July 2008 and July 2010, more Filipinos felt a big change in the climate in their place (+8 percentage points) while slightly fewer expressed ambivalence on the matter (-6 percentage points),” Pulse Asia said.

Almost 80 percent of Metro Manilans – the highest in the country – noted a big change in local climate. Metro Manila residents who claimed knowledge of climate change made up 63 percent, based on the survey.

In Mindanao, 52 percent of respondents have reported little or no knowledge of climate change. Similarly, the region had the smallest percentage of residents across the country that had noticed a big change in climate, at only 58 percent.

Meanwhile, two thirds of the respondents said recent weather-related calamities in the country and around the world were primarily the result of “human-induced environmental destruction.”

Sixty-three percent of survey respondents expressed belief that the various calamities that hit the Philippines and other countries in recent months had been the result of “humanity’s environmentally destructive ways.”

On the other hand, two in 10 Filipinos see these calamities as “God’s way of warning or punishing countries that have turned evil ways.”

Fourteen percent of respondents believe these calamities are only part of a process that naturally occurs worldwide.

The good news is more Filipinos are ready to take action, like recycling and segregating waste as well as planting trees. Up to 30 percent of those surveyed said they were willing to do more for the environment, such as educate others. However, 10 percent said they would not do anything more to protect the environment.

Pulse Asia describes climate change as “any long-term significant change in the average weather that a given region experiences.”

Asked to comment on the Pulse Asia survey, Science Undersecretary Graciano Yumul said there is a need to intensify the campaign to educate the public on climate change.

“What we are experiencing now is not ordinary. There are a lot of changes attributable to both man-induced climate change and natural variability. Enhanced information campaign understandable to our people about this issue needs to be done,” he said in text message to The STAR.

“We are in the midst of climate-related uncertain times,” Yumul added.