Source: GMA News Online at http://ph.news.yahoo.com/climate-change-perils-small-phl-islands-may-soon-105728266.html
Unless Filipinos pay attention to climate change and
the signs of its impending crux, some of the small islands in the
Philippines may vanish from the map altogether in the forthcoming years.
Super typhoons, constant flooding, change of weather patterns, and long droughts are just manifestations of climate change, with the Philippines being one of the most vulnerable countries . This is what Dr. Rodel D. Lasco, a member of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), claimed.
In an exclusive interview with GMA News Online, Dr. Lasco explained that one reason for this is that the country “has a long coastline where millions of people live including in urban centers such as Metro Manila, Cebu, and Davao.”
According to a World Bank report, sea level rise within this century will affect a larger percentage of the Philippine coastline compared to that of other developing countries of Asia and the Pacific region.
Sea levels rising
“By the end of this century, sea levels in the region are expected to rise by about 125 centimeters, exceeding the global average by 10-15%,” noted the bank report, “Getting a Grip on Climate Change in the Philippines.”
“Even assuming the sea level in the region rises at the global average rate of about 100 centimeters, about 14% of the Philippines’ total population and 42% of its total coastal population will be affected by intensifying storm surges resulting from more intense typhoons.”
In a weekly forum some years back, a weather specialist said the waters around the archipelago rose by 1.8 millimeter every year from 1961 to 2003.
In a presentation, a study was shown that the coastal areas in Davao City, Navotas, Malabon, Cavite, and Legazpi City sank by 15 centimeters from 1970 to 1999.
On a personal level, American best-selling novelist Tom Anthony, based in Davao, noticed this phenomenon recently.
Two years ago, Anthony built a house near a beach front but when he returned recently he observed cracks on the cemented pathway. Some portions were no longer passable and it was dangerous to walk on it. The dead end of the long road from the entrance is now blocked with a sign that reads DANGER. The cemented fence of a house built near the seashore may soon give way as the waves of the sea keep on encroaching intohis backyard.
View Larger Map “This is a proof that sea level rise is for real,” said Anthony, author of “Rebels of Mindanao.” “I think people should stop thinking that climate change is a state of mind.
We need to do something about it now before it’s too late.”
Former Press Secretary Jesus G. Dureza also believes that the constant flooding happening in Davao City in recent years is due to sea level rise. “My calculation is that (the sea level) has risen by one foot over a period of 20 years,” he wrote in his column, “Advocacy Mindanao.” “Hence, rain waters and floods no longer easily flow or empty out into the sea. They are clogged in the waterways and spill out into the riverbanks.”
Dureza said that when flood waters rush down during high tide, they get stuck, at times and worse, a “backflow” of seawater during high tide. When seawaters rise high, it flows back inland through rivers. Hence, low-lying areas or subdivisions or residential areas around or near riverbanks are in trouble.
“I know this because I personally witnessed how the sea level had gone up over the years,” he pointed out. “Our family lived for four years in our resort house by the sea in Davao City in the 1990s (or about 20 years ago) while we were slowly renovating our house in the GSIS area inland. Our beach house was in fact built over the water, jutting out into the sea, with stilt cement posts and under our floor was sea water rising and ebbing.”
According to him, the highest water level during high tides left water traces on the cement posts. “I would notice because every time I woke up in the morning, I could see the water markings,” he said.
Recently, Dureza asked his resort employee to check the water markings on the same post he was monitoring for years.
“He told me the highest tide level has risen by about one foot or 12 inches from its highest level 20 years ago. Our science people may dispute this but I can show them the posts. In fact, we had to demolish one resort hut which was also jutting out into the sea because the water level rose to touch the floor over the years. It was way above the water when it was built.”
Vanishing islands, inundated plains
The rise of sea levels is just one of the most certain outcomes of climate change. “A continuing rise in average global sea level would inundate parts of many heavily populated river deltas and the cities on them, making them unhabitable, and would destroy many beaches around the world,” the IPCC said.
The Philippines, whose coastline stretches 18,000 kilometers, is very vulnerable to sea level rise. The country ranks fourth in the Global Climate Risk Index. Fifteen of the 16 regions of the Philippines are vulnerable to sea level rise.
A study conducted by the Philippine Country Study to Address Climate Change some years back showed that the Manila Bay is already subjected to several hazards, including flooding and storm surges.
“Shoreline changes due to reclamation for housing, ports, coastal roads, buildings and other urbanized development are high, adding to an increased threat of inundation,” the study said.
Dr. Rosa Perez, a climate scientist at the Manila Observatory, said the sea level that has been projected in the study for the year 2100 would have risen by 0.3 meter and 1 meter to represent the low and high estimates and 2 meters for the worst-case scenario.
All of Cavite, she pointed out, will see a sea level rise of at least 30 centimeters. With every meter that it gains, the sea goes at least three kilometers inlands, she added. The sea will literally rise to flood the plains.
Climate change, scientists claim, is caused by an increase in the amount of greenhouse gases spewed into the atmosphere. Greenhouse gases refer to carbon dioxide and other industrial gases.
43rd in greenhouse emissions
The Philippines ranks 43rd in terms of global greenhouse gas emissions and 112th in terms of emissions intensity, accounting for only 0.3% of global emissions.
“The country’s total greenhouse gas emissions, excluding land use change and forestry, have hovered around 80 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent since the late 1990s,” the World Bank report said.
The country’s principal emission sources are the energy and transport sectors, accounting for36% and 32% of total greenhouse gas emissions in 2005, respectively.
“By 2030, under a business as usual scenario, the emissions from the energy sector are estimated to quadruple,” said the World Bank report.
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