Climate change perils: Small Philippine islands may soon disappear into sea

Source: GMA News Online at  http://ph.news.yahoo.com/climate-change-perils-small-phl-islands-may-soon-105728266.html

 

Unless Filipinos pay attention to climate change and the signs of its impending crux, some of the small islands in the Philippines may vanish from the map altogether in the forthcoming years. 

Super typhoons, constant flooding, change of weather patterns, and long droughts are just manifestations of climate change, with the Philippines being one of the most vulnerable countries . This is what Dr. Rodel D. Lasco, a member of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), claimed.


In an exclusive interview with GMA News Online, Dr. Lasco explained that one reason for this is that the country “has a long coastline where millions of people live including in urban centers such as Metro Manila, Cebu, and Davao.”

According to a World Bank report, sea level rise within this century will affect a larger percentage of the Philippine coastline compared to that of other developing countries of Asia and the Pacific region.
 
Sea levels rising

“By the end of this century, sea levels in the region are expected to rise by about 125 centimeters, exceeding the global average by 10-15%,” noted the bank report, “Getting a Grip on Climate Change in the Philippines.”


“Even assuming the sea level in the region rises at the global average rate of about 100 centimeters, about 14% of the Philippines’ total population and 42% of its total coastal population will be affected by intensifying storm surges resulting from more intense typhoons.”

In a weekly forum some years back, a weather specialist said the waters around the archipelago rose by 1.8 millimeter every year from 1961 to 2003.

In a presentation, a study was shown that the coastal areas in Davao City, Navotas, Malabon, Cavite, and Legazpi City sank by 15 centimeters from 1970 to 1999.

On a personal level, American best-selling novelist Tom Anthony, based in Davao, noticed this phenomenon recently.


Two years ago, Anthony built a house near a beach front but when he returned recently he observed cracks on the cemented pathway. Some portions were no longer passable and it was dangerous to walk on it. The dead end of the long road from the entrance is now blocked with a sign that reads DANGER. The cemented fence of a house built near the seashore may soon give way as the waves of the sea keep on encroaching intohis backyard.


View Larger Map “This is a proof that sea level rise is for real,” said Anthony, author of “Rebels of Mindanao.” “I think people should stop thinking that climate change is a state of mind.
We need to do something about it now before it’s too late.”

Former Press Secretary Jesus G. Dureza also believes that the constant flooding happening in Davao City in recent years is due to sea level rise. “My calculation is that (the sea level) has risen by one foot over a period of 20 years,” he wrote in his column, “Advocacy Mindanao.” “Hence, rain waters and floods no longer easily flow or empty out into the sea. They are clogged in the waterways and spill out into the riverbanks.”

Dureza said that when flood waters rush down during high tide, they get stuck, at times and worse, a “backflow” of seawater during high tide. When seawaters rise high, it flows back inland through rivers. Hence, low-lying areas or subdivisions or residential areas around or near riverbanks are in trouble.

“I know this because I personally witnessed how the sea level had gone up over the years,” he pointed out. “Our family lived for four years in our resort house by the sea in Davao City in the 1990s (or about 20 years ago) while we were slowly renovating our house in the GSIS area inland. Our beach house was in fact built over the water, jutting out into the sea, with stilt cement posts and under our floor was sea water rising and ebbing.”

According to him, the highest water level during high tides left water traces on the cement posts. “I would notice because every time I woke up in the morning, I could see the water markings,” he said.
Recently, Dureza asked his resort employee to check the water markings on the same post he was monitoring for years.

“He told me the highest tide level has risen by about one foot or 12 inches from its highest level 20 years ago. Our science people may dispute this but I can show them the posts. In fact, we had to demolish one resort hut which was also jutting out into the sea because the water level rose to touch the floor over the years. It was way above the water when it was built.”
 
Vanishing islands, inundated plains

The rise of sea levels is just one of the most certain outcomes of climate change. “A continuing rise in average global sea level would inundate parts of many heavily populated river deltas and the cities on them, making them unhabitable, and would destroy many beaches around the world,” the IPCC said.

The Philippines, whose coastline stretches 18,000 kilometers, is very vulnerable to sea level rise. The country ranks fourth in the Global Climate Risk Index. Fifteen of the 16 regions of the Philippines are vulnerable to sea level rise.

A study conducted by the Philippine Country Study to Address Climate Change some years back showed that the Manila Bay is already subjected to several hazards, including flooding and storm surges.

“Shoreline changes due to reclamation for housing, ports, coastal roads, buildings and other urbanized development are high, adding to an increased threat of inundation,” the study said.

Dr. Rosa Perez, a climate scientist at the Manila Observatory, said the sea level that has been projected in the study for the year 2100 would have risen by 0.3 meter and 1 meter to represent the low and high estimates and 2 meters for the worst-case scenario.

All of Cavite, she pointed out, will see a sea level rise of at least 30 centimeters. With every meter that it gains, the sea goes at least three kilometers inlands, she added. The sea will literally rise to flood the plains.

Climate change, scientists claim, is caused by an increase in the amount of greenhouse gases spewed into the atmosphere. Greenhouse gases refer to carbon dioxide and other industrial gases.
 
43rd in greenhouse emissions


The Philippines ranks 43rd in terms of global greenhouse gas emissions and 112th in terms of emissions intensity, accounting for only 0.3% of global emissions.


“The country’s total greenhouse gas emissions, excluding land use change and forestry, have hovered around 80 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent since the late 1990s,” the World Bank report said.
The country’s principal emission sources are the energy and transport sectors, accounting for36% and 32% of total greenhouse gas emissions in 2005, respectively.

“By 2030, under a business as usual scenario, the emissions from the energy sector are estimated to quadruple,” said the World Bank report.

TYPHOON HAIYAN: THE ILLUSION OF THE AVOIDABLE DISASTER

Written for Zeit Online by Felix Lill. Below is the English (poor) translation from Babelfish. For the original German version, see

http://www.zeit.de/wissen/2013-11/philippinen-taifun-haiyan-praevention 

 

Researchers draw a bitter balance sheet: The Filipinos were ill-prepared for the typhoon . And, although the risk was known and had days lead . Felix Lill

What is a house, what a car, an animal or a human? Where Typhoon Haiyan has raged most , you do not know that these days. The storm has churned out all crushed and durchgequirlt . Trees , boats, tin roofs . And then he spat it back to the people - or even with them in it.

Who now looks from the air to the Philippines , sees something that resembles a gigantic dump. Boats are there where cars drove past . Car wrecks where children played otherwise .

Frightening. And even more frightening is that we already know of such images. After the Indian Ocean tsunami in December 2004, it looked at the coasts of Thailand and numerous Indonesian islands exactly - and worse - from . And in 2011 , after a tsunami triggered by Japan's tsunami had flooded East Coast, we received similar images from Fukushima.
Wanted to learn to be better prepared for these disasters , develop early warning systems and operate better Coastal protection . How that would go , you should know that in Asia. It was simply a little . And now they are back , the images of destruction.

" From the global experience of the past years, we have to take as much as possible," warned even a year ago Mahmoud Mohieldin at a conference in 2011 severely affected by earthquake and tsunami Sendai. The Egyptian politician is one of the World Bank directors and then spoke in front of more than 200 international decision makers . People seemed to agree . It should something happen .

And now , in the Philippines ? The residents were better prepared ? The balance is from bitter - because the answer is no. "We had to train our people better," says Ebinezer Florano . The social scientist at the University of Manila criticized not only that the government now takes days to help those affected. One could also advance to better plan , he says. "People have not been well informed. " Although everyone has known this day that a strong typhoon was coming. "But the talk was also of a storm surge . Most people know what to do with this term . When the typhoon came with the tsunami , she thought suddenly , that would be a tsunami. "

Although an average of 19 typhoons a year to sweep the Philippines, the population was not adjusted to such a heavy storm that brings so violent floods with it . 800,000 people had indeed been brought to safety , journalists report . But the number of people affected now stands at more than ten times . According to information from the United Nations World Food Programme about 2.5 million people need urgent help . Maybe have a great deal of damage and many deaths can be avoided.

The death of many could have been avoided

Easy it would have been better to prepare it says Florano . Then people would have been not so much surprised , the current chaos might be smaller. Many people died because they did the wrong thing out of ignorance. So many are running on the run from the gusts of wind sweeping everything in the basement of sports halls. When the water came , they were drowned there. " When I compare my country with others, we do not cut particularly well ," said Florano .

The researchers compared the situation in Manila shortly after Typhoon Haiyan with the situation in the first days after two major natural disasters in Japan. His analysis : " There, things just work . " Two and a half years ago Florano had traveled to the Tohoku region, which was severely damaged by the earthquake and the resulting tsunami triggered in 2011. 16 years previously he had studied in the region of Kobe in western Japan , the consequences of an earthquake in 1995 , by 4500 people were killed .

" In both cases, the Japanese went very quietly to the disaster. People knew how they had to behave ," says Florano . " Even under great anxiety remained the social order , individuals took back for the good of the group . " His compatriots go sometimes from these characteristic , he says.

 

Clean Development Projects: Biogas Emission Reduction Project Feasibility Reports

(click to enlarge the table)

A class of Public Administration students of the University of the Philippines-National College of Public Administration and Governance wrote feasibility reports on biogas emission reduction projects for Rosales, Pangasinan, Capas, Tarlac, and Catmon, Malabon City. Their projects were patterned from the BERP of Pangea Green Energy Philippines located in Payatas, Quezon City. The Pangea BERP is a UNFCCC-registered Clean Development Mechanism project which collects, processes, and flares landfill gas or methane (CH4). CH4 has 21 times global warming potential. The BERP also generates electricity supplied to the power plant, and soon, to the Luzon electricity grid. All the three projects studied the feasibility of a BERP in their areas. Summaries of the feasibility reports are on the table above.

The groups and their members are as follows:

Group 1: Clean Development Mechanism: Biogas Emission Reduction Project in Rosales, Pangasinan Dumpsite

Members: Sigrid Avenido, Ron Arjay Beringuela, Jazelle Anne Lim, Eveanne Seneca Nadal, Mark Gil Taguba, and Imman Van Valerio

Group 2: Clean Development Mechanism: Metro Clark Landfill Gas Capture System and Electricity Generation in Barangay Cutcut, Capas, Tarlac

Members: Hans Pieter Arao, Jennifer Cabanero, Charlene Rose Cadhit, John Gabriel Fernando, and Ronina Tababa

Group 3: Clean Development Mechanism: A Feasibility Study on a Controlled Disposal Facility Biogas Emission Reduction Project in the City of Malabon

Members: Fatima Ayesha Bahjin, Patricia Anne Benoza, Frances Grace Damazo, Raymond Estrella, and Anjelo Montecastro

Group 4: Clean Development Mechanism: Valenzuela Biogas Emission Reduction Project - A Project Feasibility Study

Members: Charmen Balana, Julia Alexandra Chu, Vernon Chua, Julliano Fernando Guiang, Alain Nacor, and Ihna Maries Santos

Global warming has increased monthly heat records by a factor of five

Source:  http://www.pik-potsdam.de/news/press-releases/monatliche-hitzerekorde-haben-sich-durch-die-erderwaermung-verfuenffacht

 

01/14/2013 - Monthly temperature extremes have become much more frequent, as measurements from around the world indicate. On average, there are now five times as many record-breaking hot months worldwide than could be expected without long-term global warming, shows a study now published in Climatic Change. In parts of Europe, Africa and southern Asia the number of monthly records has increased even by a factor of ten. 80 percent of observed monthly records would not have occurred without human influence on climate, concludes the authors-team of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and the Complutense University of Madrid. 

 

“The last decade brought unprecedented heat waves; for instance in the US in 2012, in Russia in 2010, in Australia in 2009, and in Europe in 2003,” lead-author Dim Coumou says. “Heat extremes are causing many deaths, major forest fires, and harvest losses – societies and ecosystems are not adapted to ever new record-breaking temperatures.” The new study relies on 131 years of monthly temperature data for more than 12.000 grid points around the world, provided by NASA. Comprehensive analysis reveals the increase in records.

The researchers developed a robust statistical model that explains the surge in the number of records to be a consequence of the long-term global warming trend. That surge has been particularly steep over the last 40 years, due to a steep global-warming trend over this period. Superimposed on this long-term rise, the data show the effect of natural variability, with especially high numbers of heat records during years with El Niño events. This natural variability, however, does not explain the overall development of record events, found the researchers.

Natural variability does not explain the overall development of record events

If global warming continues, the study projects that the number of new monthly records will be 12 times as high in 30 years as it would be without climate change. “Now this doesn’t mean there will be 12 times more hot summers in Europe than today – it actually is worse,“ Coumou points out. For the new records set in the 2040s will not just be hot by today’s standards. “To count as new records, they actually have to beat heat records set in the 2020s and 2030s, which will already be hotter than anything we have experienced to date,” explains Coumou. “And this is just the global average – in some continental regions, the increase in new records will be even greater.”

“Statistics alone cannot tell us what the cause of any single heat wave is, but they show a large and systematic increase in the number of heat records due to global warming,” says Stefan Rahmstorf, a co-author of the study and co-chair of PIK’s research domain Earth System Analysis. “Today, this increase is already so large that by far most monthly heat records are due to climate change. The science is clear that only a small fraction would have occurred naturally.”

Article: Coumou, D., Robinson, A., Rahmstorf, S. (2013): Global increase in record-breaking monthly-mean temperatures. Climatic Change (online) [doi:10.1007/s10584-012-0668-1]
Weblink to the article: http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-012-0668-1

For further information please contact:
PIK press office
Phone: +49 331 288 25 07
E-Mail: press@pik-potsdam.de

50 degrees Celsius in Australia

From UNFCCC's Facebook Status


Extreme heat in Australia: The country's Bureau of Meteorology's interactive weather forecasting chart has added new colours – deep purple and pink – to extend its previous temperature range that had been capped at 50 degrees.

Climate Change Now Blamed for Volcanic Eruptions

By Laura Sinpetru

Source: Softpedia at http://news.softpedia.com/news/Climate-Change-Now-Blamed-for-Volcanic-Eruptions-317436.shtml

Up until recently, it was believed that the volcano-climate relationship only went one way. Thus, most people agree that, once a volcano erupts and releases significant amounts of sulfur dioxide into the air, the weather is bound to cool down to a certain extent.

This phenomenon happens because of a very simple reason: sunlight has a tougher time reaching the earth, Oil Price explains.

However, a new study carried out by geologists working with the GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research in Kiel argues that shifts in global weather conditions can also influence the way in which active volcanoes across the world behave.

In other words, global warming can foster volcanic eruptions.

The scientists who looked into this issue explain the situation as follows: during an ice age, most of the water housed in seas and oceans turns into ice and builds up on land.

This basically means that the continents find themselves compressed by all the extra weight now sitting on top of them.

However, once this period of extreme cold comes to an end and the ice starts to melt, said extra weight makes its way back into seas and oceans.

As a result of these climate shifts' toying with the pressure applied on the continents' surface and on the sea floor on a regular basis, the magma gets agitated and sooner or later volcanic eruptions start taking place.

Although this study focused on the Pacific Ring of Fire and its responses to an ice age's settling in or coming to an end throughout the past million years, there are other scientists who argue that man-made global warming might also translate into volcanoes' erupting ever more frequently, primarily due to the melting of the Arctic ice and rising sea levels.

The findings of this study linking climate change to volcanic eruptions were published in the scientific journal Geology.